17 September, 2015

NineSquared’s Anthony Vine has used some of the same modelling techniques that we offer clients to determine the winner of each game of the Rugby World Cup.

We have produced a set of rankings for the 20 teams in the World Cup. These rankings are then be used to predict the outcomes and winning margins of each game. Broadly, each of the 20 teams in the RWC have been assigned an ELO rating based on their performances in matches between each other since 1992. Prior to each match of the RWC, the ELO rating of each team is compared to determine the expected winner. The higher the score, the more likely that country is to win.

We are predicting an All Blacks and Wallabies final with the Kiwis sneaking home. Our modelling however does not pick up all the intangibles and unquantified factors that may influence the results, and some fun facts to give Aussie supporters confidence is that the Wallabies are the only team to have won Rugby World Cups hosted in Britain (1991 and 1999) and no team has ever won back to back World Cups (sorry New Zealand!).

Download the report here. We will provide updates and any changes to the likely winners throughout the tournament. Follow us at the NineSquared LinkedIn page and Twitter – @ninesquared81 for updates.

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