Port of Brisbane Economic Appraisal of Market Led Proposal

Background

NineSquared was engaged by the Port of Brisbane Pty Ltd to assist with its Market Led Proposal (MLP) submission to the Queensland Government to develop a new Mega Cruise Ship Terminal.

Our role

NineSquared, with our associates Cadence Economics, prepared an economic appraisal of the project to determine its viability and future impact on the Queensland economy. The economic appraisal consisted of an analysis of the cruise sector in Queensland and Australia, its contribution to the Queensland economy, and the forecast impact of the new terminal (using a CGE model) on economic output, investment and jobs.

NineSquared also prepared a demand forecast of the likely future ship calls and passengers using the new terminal. NineSquared developed two forecasting approaches consisting of a bottom up and top down approach. The bottom up approach adopted a “fleet turnover” model to estimate ship retirement and replacements from the global cruise ship market. The top down approach developed an econometric model using historical data to forecast cruise ship demand for all Australian ports including Brisbane.

The project was approved by the Queensland Government in October 2017 to advance to the delivery phase. The approval of the Mega Cruise Ship Terminal follows on from the Queensland Government’s first Market Led Proposal to proceed to the delivery phase, the $512 million Logan Motorway Enhancement Project, which was also supported by NineSquared as the independent economics advisor to the Queensland Government.

Download