12 October, 2015

NineSquared’s 2015 Rugby World Cup model resulted in a correct prediction of 90 percent of all of the pool games as well as 75 percent of the predicted margins for correctly predicted games being within 2 converted tries of the actual score. Eight teams now remain after the rugged Rugby World Cup Group stage. Advancing ahead of hosts England, South Africa and Wales present the closest match with a margin of only 4 points on the back of South Africa’s shock loss to Japan. The other three QF matches (NZ and France, Ireland and Argentina, Australia and Scotland) are expected to be relatively comfortable with more than 1 try margins.

After all is said and done, New Zealand is still predicted to hold the trophy with just over 60% chance of winning. Australia is the next closest at 27%, with Ireland the only other real contender with a 5% chance of winning. Much of this changes, however, if France manages to beat NZ as they did in the 1999 and 2007 World Cups. Australia then emerges as the clear favourite with a 58% chance of winning.

Supporting this is New Zealand’s poor start to the RWC. When comparing the predicted outcomes and the actual outcomes, New Zealand performed the worse by dropping 104 points.  Alternatively, Japan and Georgia exceeded expectations of points spread, even when compared to NineSquared’s bullish predictions. Of the teams remaining, Argentina and Scotland exceeded the point spread the most, potentially suggesting they are underrated, with New Zealand and France performing the worse, potentially suggesting they are overrated.

Download our initial predictions and the updated finals predictions here.

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