Demand analysis and forecasting

NineSquared has a strong track record developing forecasts for both the private sector and government. These include bankable forecasts that have been used to gain funding for airport expansions or as part of a sale process and scenario models that have been used to analyse the impact of a range of policy and development options.

Urban public transport

Public transport forecasts are a key input into many planning decisions and we have developed a range of public transport forecasting models that are highly transparent and typically utilise a spreadsheet interface. Many of our models incorporate both revealed preference and stated preference data as a means of developing base market demand. Our model's incorporate details of passenger travel behaviour and trip characteristics and passenger mode choice and can be either multi-modal or single mode. The models capture both endogenous and exogenous demand drivers including economic growth, population growth, pricing regimes and modal competition all of which affect market growth.

Roads

Our team has completed a number of road demand studies, including toll road forecasts. Our traffic forecasting approach considers likely diversion rates and willingness to pay. We have developed models using both stated preference surveys and revealed preference tolling data.

Supply chain

Major rail network expansions often involve choosing between alternative routes and potentially ports and the final choice is dependent on the potentially complex relationship between when individual developments occur, network capacity, cost and project timing. We have undertaken a number of supply chain studies where we have modelled the mine to ship cost (including indicative mining costs) to determine the viability of alternative developments under a range of growth scenarios. These studies have helped inform infrastructure owners of the risks associated with developing their assets and miners understand which supply chain will best suit their development timetable.

Airports

We have developed sophisticated econometric models incorporating economic growth assumptions, airline pricing strategies and other exogenous factors. These models are typically calibrated with reference to the results of detailed time-series analysis of long-term trends in airport passenger and freight activity.
These forecasts have contributed to the analysis of large scale airport capital development programs and the assessment of future aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue streams. In addition, airport traffic forecasts have been prepared as an input to the assessment of the demand for ground access modes.

Our experts

Please contact one of our forecasting experts for more information on our capabilities and experience.

Tom Frost – Director. Tom is an economist who has been consulting to industry and government for almost 20 years. He has extensive experience in the provision of regulatory and economic advice to clients. He has provided advice to clients across Australia and internationally regarding investment in transport infrastructure.

Robin Barlow – Director. Robin has more than 20 years experience working in the transport sector and in government. He has worked for the Commonwealth government as an economist at the Industry Commission and for the Queensland Government where he held a number of senior positions within TransLink.

Selected projects

A selection of recent projects in demand and growth forecasting is shown below:

Yarra Trams

Development of patronange and farebox revenue forecasting models for the Melbourne tram network

Queensland Motorways Sale

Long term toll road forecasts for Transurban’s successful bid of Queensland Motorways Limited

Sydney Light Rail CBD extension

Developed a multi-modal patronage and revenue model to assess route options and the viability of a CBD extension to Sydney Light Rail

Melbourne Airport Rail Link

Patronage and revenue study for a range of transit options from Melbourne Airport to the CBD including rail and bus rapid transit

Beijing International Airport

Developed bankable air passenger, freight and aircraft movement forecasts for financing of the Beijing International Airport expansion

Brisbane Public Transport Elasticity Study

Developed a multi-modal model using stated and revealed preference data to determine the own price and cross elasticity of all modes of transport in Brisbane